n a disturbing paradox of a booming economy, the number of homeless people in Massachusetts seeking shelter has reached a record high, according to the Massachusetts Housing and Shelter Alliance.
The rise in homelessness, which is also reflected in Boston city statistics, reflects one of the consequences of a soaring real estate market: As paychecks swell and demand for housing rises, rents soar and homelessness peaks.
Last winter, 5,016 people were counted as homeless, up from 4,948 the previous winter and continuing a steady upward trend since the early '90s, when the economy was slower. And, gone are the days when the state could guarantee a family shelter for the night.
Meanwhile, the numbers of public-housing units available to low-income families is dropping, just as the economy pushes rents out of the price range of even the working poor. Also, as many as 8,000 families could lose welfare benefits as soon as Dec. 1, according to the Department of Transitional Assistance, further reducing any income they could devote to housing.
Xavier de Souza Briggs, acting assistant sectretary for policy for the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development, said the number of people paying more than half their income for housing, those most at risk of homelessness, is at an all-time high.
``We're finding that economic growth comes at a certain price, a heavy one for those at the bottom,'' Briggs said. ``At the moment, we are seeing a high point in worst-case housing. Those are people who are at risk of becoming homeless tomorrow.''
Philip Mangano, executive director of the Massachusetts Housing and Shelter Alliance, said, ``The notion that an expanding, bullish economy lifts all boats unfortunately doesn't hold true for the poorest people.''
He said the link between economic prosperity and homelessness is not immediately apparent, but well-documented, nonetheless.
In 1981, a recession year, the state funded two emergency shelters, Mangano said. By 1989, after six years of rapid economic expansion and a soaring stock market, it funded 150 such shelters. A 1989 study of housing trends in Boston found that condominium conversions, which totaled more than 25,000 from 1981 to 1987, severely cut the city's affordable housing stock.
The period from the mid-'90s to late 1998 has been a similar financial climate, as a richer workforce has driven rents and home prices to higher levels than even the boom years of the late '80s.
Thus, Mangano said, people living on the margins, paying more than half their incomes for rent, quickly become priced out and fall into the shelter system, creating a downward domino effect on even needier people.
The shelter system has accommodated more people than its 4,000-bed capacity for a full eight months this year. That contrasts with 1993, when there were no months of overflow, despite fewer beds.
``Capacity has increased and the shelter system continues to overflow at unprecedented levels,'' Mangano said.
A Housing and Urban Development report released in April, entitled Rental Housing Assistance - The Crisis Continues, declared ``economic prosperity has failed to ease the affordable housing shortage.''
The HUD report said 18,000 Boston homes, where 24 percent of low-income renters live, were identified as ``worst-case housing needs'' households, homes where wage-earners make less than 50 percent of the local median and use half of their income on housing.
Vacancy in Boston's rental housing market in fall of 1997 was 1.64 percent and the average cost of an apartment was $1,047 a month.
Some victims of the shortage sleep on Boston's streets.
``We're seeing more people becoming homeless and it's taking them longer to get housing,'' said Kelley Cronin, director of Boston's Emergency Shelter Commission.
The city's annual count of the homeless, which occurs on a December day each year, providing a snapshot of the population, shows a rise. Last winter, there were 5,016 people counted. The year before, it was 4,948. In 1995, the figure was 4,774, in 1994 it was 5,299, and in 1993 it was 4,809.
Illustrating another paradox, Cronin said, the state Department of Transitional Assistance, which administers the Emergency Assistance program, forces government-funded shelters to reject anyone earning more than just above minimum wage - an amount that still leaves some people homeless and, presumably, living with friends or on the streets.
Under state rules, a mother of two can earn no more than $5.19 per hour, 4 cents over minimum wage, or face ejection from a shelter.
The income limit forces some to choose between earning money and having a place to stay, even though it's only a shelter.
``In this gangbusters economy we've got families who are actually thinking of giving up work or cutting back their hours so they can get into a shelter,'' said Sue Marsh, executive director of the Massachusetts Coalition for the Homeless.
Richard Ring, executive director of Travelers Aid Boston, which steps in to pay for temporary housing for those families who cannot stay in shelters, said his agency's services are being used more often now than ever before.
In 1996, when the agency's Family Emergency Shelter program began, it housed 75 families in hotels for an average of six days each. In 1997, there were 140 families. By Sept. 30 of this year, there were 138 families with 291 children who had used the service. Ring expects the final numbers for the year to exceed 180.
``It's the assumption among those working with homeless families that the number is growing and will continue to grow,'' he said. ``We anticipate the numbers will grow more once the first class of welfare recipients lose their benefits.''
Eileen McNamara
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