[Hpn] Futurist and trends forecaster - Outlook Not Good!

William C. Tinker wtinker@verizon.net
Sat, 02 Feb 2008 22:23:50 -0500


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      Headline News=20

      2008 USA Outlook=20
      Futurist and trends forecaster - Outlook Not Good!=20

      After watching the latest rounds of GOP Debates and listening to =
Presidential candidate John McCain tell the masses he believes the US =
Economy is doing great and will continue into his Presidency. Our =
editorial staff decided to republish a recent story by Christorpher =
Ketcham that is getting so much traffic that it is actually crashing =
servers where the story is hosted.

      Why did we feel this appropriate?  Our staff believes that =
"Traditional Media" are not giving a fair portrait of our social and =
economic climate and wanted you to see and hear more from the other side =
too.  We also plan to offer more insight to this lack of media coverage =
in the very near future.  For now here is the future as one man sees it:



      Trends for Downsizing the US: The Bright Side of the Panic of '08  =

      by Christopher Ketcham =20
       Futurist and trends forecaster Gerald Celente, director of the =
Trends Research Institute in Rhinebeck, NY, predicted the 1987 stock =
market crash, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, the Asian =
economic implosion of '97, the decline of the dollar beginning in 2005, =
the meteoric rise in gold prices in an age of currency volatility, and =
the turn of events that may be the blessing of our era, the subprime =
mortgage crisis.=20

        Because of this habit of prescience, Celente has appeared =
regularly on CNN and Fox and MSNBC, his "Trends Reports" widely quoted =
in newsprint, on Oprah Winfrey, on Good Morning America.



      Now in his Report for 2008, issued in mid-December, he carried the =
news every thinking American already knows. "The United States of =
America," Celente pronounced, "has gone from first class to third rate." =
It's a "nation on the skids and heading down."=20

      Celente projects economic and political crisis in the coming year. =
"In 2008, Americans will wake up to the worst economic times that anyone =
alive has ever seen," he wrote on December 17. "Just as they didn't see =
9/11 coming and were frozen in shock when terror struck, [Americans] =
will be frozen in shock when terror strikes again." He predicts "failing =
banks, busted brokerages, toppled corporate giants, bankrupt cities, =
states in default, foreign creditors cashing out of US securities.the =
stage is set, the big one is on its way."


          =20


      A similar wake-up call (Watch Video) was issued last summer in a =
report by none other than the chief investigator for the US Government =
Accountability Office, comptroller general David Walker, who warned that =
US policy on energy, education, the environment, health =
care,immigration, Iraq - pretty much the gamut - was on an =
"unsustainable" course, bound for a maelstrom of insolvency that could =
threaten to sink the ship.=20

      According to the GAO chief, the fall of Rome seemed an apt =
historical comparison:=20

        a.. "[D]eclining moral values and political civility at home, an =
over-confident and over-extended military in foreign lands, and fiscal =
irresponsibility by the central government. Sound familiar? I'm trying =
to sound an alarm."=20


      When I called up Celente on Jan. 2 to see how the new year was =
taking shape on the first day of trading, he fired back in an e-mail:=20

        a.. "An attack in Nigeria (Africa's biggest oil producer) by =
anti-government forces on the port city of Port Harcourt hit the futures =
markets hard. On the New York Stock Exchange, trading conditions =
worsened on reports that the Institute for Supply Management's =
manufacturing index dropped to 47.7, the lowest reading since April =
2003. Growth in European and Singapore manufacturing also slowed in =
November, showing signs for all those that were looking that the =
slowdown would be global."=20

      By early afternoon, gold had surged $24 an ounce, crude oil =
climbed $3, the dollar fell against all major currencies, and the Dow =
was down over 200 points. The next day, Jan. 3, oil hit a record $100 a =
barrel. And indeed, as Celente warned, world markets were unraveling by =
the second week of January, the Nikkei on its worse start to a new year =
since 1970, the MSCI World Index dropping 6.9 percent, a loss of $2.1 =
trillion from members' market capitalization, while Swiss world banking =
giant UBS posted a $13 billion loss, and authorities in Britain reported =
the first run on a British bank in a hundred years.

      When on January 14 Celente sent out his weekly e-mail alert to =
subscribers, the news was no better. The Dow registered its third =
consecutive week of losses, one of its worst New Year starts in history, =
losing in just the first week of 2008 half its gains from 2007.=20

        a.. "Slumping retail sales, dire housing data, rising =
unemployment rates, gloomy consumer confidence, spiking oil prices, a =
ballooning trade gap, eroding wages, mounting credit card debt and =
delinquencies, mortgage defaults, record foreclosures," said Celente. =
"The data floods the wires and spreads the fear." It's telling that =
Tiffany's was off 11 percent in sales, as even the very rich hide their =
cash under beds.=20

      So is the subprime mortgage mess the catalyst for the Big One, =
what Celente calls the Panic of '08? Stock guru Jim Cramer, host of =
CNBC's Mad Money and co-founder of TheStreet.com, seems to think so.=20

        a.. "There are a group of insurance companies that insure all =
these bad mortgages," he told Chris Matthews on Jan. 18. "And I think =
they're all about to go belly up. And that will cause the Dow Jones to =
decline 2,000 points. They have got to be shut down. This is going to =
happen in maybe two, three weeks, Chris. It's going to be on the front =
of every paper. And no one in Washington is even willing to admit it. I =
am telling you these companies do not have the capital to make good. =
And, when they do fall - I believe it is when - if the government =
doesn't have a plan in action, you will not be able to open the stock =
market when they collapse.No one is even talking about it."=20

      From panic, offers Gerald Celente, will arise almost overnight an =
era of social and political upheaval and plain awfulness. Self storage =
will finally "live up to the meaning of its name. Down and out, thrown =
onto the streets, homeless Americans will empty out storage lockers of =
useless junk.to store themselves."=20

      He predicts wage riots and anti-government street protests and =
intensified anti-immigration movements looking to scapegoat the "aliens" =
among us.=20

      Toward the 1 percent of Americans who received 50 percent of all =
income gains in recent years - those same 1 percenters, roughly 3 =
million people, who took in 22 percent of all income in 2005 - there =
will be growing rage.=20

        a.. "Kidnappings for ransom will become common, as they were in =
the Depression and as the poor strike out against the rich," Celente =
predicts. Lawlessness will be met, as in most third rate nations, with =
violence from an increasingly sophisticated and brutal police state. A =
different type of violence from the ground up, tax revolts, will also =
develop in strength, targeting a tax-ravenous federal government that =
Celente charges has failed "to protect food, win wars, clean the =
environment, upgrade infrastructure, improve living standards, provide =
health services or advance education."=20

      Meanwhile, the dollar will bottom out at 10 cents to the euro =
sometime in the next several years, perhaps by 2010. Newspapers report =
that even Third World vendors are beginning to refuse payment in =
greenbacks, while foreign governments and investors, mostly the Chinese, =
deploy the muscle of their currencies to buy US property and businesses =
(proxies of the Chinese government late last year snagged a 5 percent =
stake in Citibank, a 10 percent stake in Morgan Stanley).

      Note that this is no fringer veering into conspiracist phantasm: =
Celente consults for hundreds of large and small corporations, addresses =
government bodies worldwide. Norway flew him to Europe in 2006 to =
address a conference on innovation, while the International Council of =
Shopping Centers hosted him as the key-note speaker at its 2007 =
convention - the mall builders hoped to glean from Celente "what people =
want from malls."=20

      It's notable, in the wake of the prognoses of his 2008 reports, =
that he is no longer invited onto the TV and cable networks - "the first =
year in decades," he says, "that they did not have me on and that USA =
Today did not cover the Trends Report." When Celente sent out an e-mail =
alert to his mailing list in mid-January, Jack Marks, the publisher and =
CEO of The Wall Street Reporter, one of the oldest investment organs in =
New York, wrote him back to say "You are a #ucking retard mother#ucker" =
and "Remove me from this list, you #ucking moron."=20

      The local publishing group near Celente's home in Rhinebeck is =
perhaps more typical in its spinelessness: The Taconic Press, which =
publishes six newspapers in the Hudson Valley and upstate New York, told =
Celente in December via e-mail that there was "a general uproar about =
the inclusion of your Trends forecast [in 2007]. reader and advertiser =
reaction was strong, and they made their feelings known to our =
publisher." Celente's long relationship with Taconic Press is no more. =
Par for the course in the nation of blinkered denial.

      There is apparently an upside to the rottenness to come, according =
to Celente - if Americans dare to reinvent for the 21st century the free =
thinking and civic courage of their past. This good cheer as Rome burns =
is buried somewhat in Celente's report for 2008, but what it suggests is =
that, catalyzed by crisis, a fair number of Americans - a minority, =
likely, but still to watch - will begin this year a transformation of =
consciousness.=20

        Celente predicts that the smaller communities, the smaller =
groups, the smaller states, the more self-sustaining communities, will =
"weather the crisis in style" as big cities and hypertrophic suburbias =
descend into misery and conflict.=20

      "Like Katrina's victims that knew the hurricane was coming but =
didn't flee - and looked to Uncle Sam to save the day - those that don't =
take action before panic strikes or wait for Washington to lend a hand, =
will suffer the most from the calamity that follows," he writes.=20

        Economically, the new consciousness will recapture Yankee =
frugality and reject the lunatic behaviors that have been unsustainable =
since the Second World War - big houses, big cars, big spending. Those =
who market and embrace "products and services that focus on compact, =
smart, functional, efficient, neat, clean, reusable, 'less is more' and =
'small is beautiful'," Celente writes, "will handsomely profit."=20

      There will be a downsizing of expectations and perceived needs. =
There will be a downsizing of giantist institutions to fit to human =
scale - the center cannot hold, particularly as state's righters and tax =
rebels and what Celente calls "the newly flourishing state secessionist =
movements" begin to repudiate a $9 trillion-in-debt federal government =
that too often practices the most offensive kind of taxation without =
representation. Altogether, there will be a downsizing of America.


        a.. "This could be the end of something really ignorant and =
stupid and dark," Celente told me recently in a phone interview. "The =
end of a dark age! The end of the age of what I call Bottom-Line =
Fascism, the ruthless and dictatorial profit-only way of thinking that =
produces crap over quality in all the major institutions, dopiness and =
blob-thinking, the manipulations of an idiotic media and political =
establishment, the Cartoon News Networks, the Greta Van Susterens and =
the Hillary Clintons uttering the same pablum ad nauseum over and over. =
All the institutions are coming apart - government, corporations, media, =
education, health care. They present nothing less than a vacuum! =
Something has to fill it! The systems that are in place? Things can only =
get worse if they stay in place. But I'm an optimist. I'm gunning for =
something better to replace what we got." He pauses. "A renaissance! I'm =
gunning for a renaissance: an era where quality beats out the crap of =
quantity."=20
        POST-SCRIPT: Alarm bells are also ringing for former CIA =
consultant Chalmers Johnson, author of the Blowback Trilogy, including =
most recently the final installment Nemesis: The Last Days of the =
American Republic. Like Celente, Johnson sees the subprime mess as only =
the most visible part of a far-reaching debt crisis with lethal =
implications. "Confronted by the limits of its own vast but nonetheless =
finite financial resources and lacking the political check on spending =
provided by a functional democracy," Johnson wrote in Harper's last =
January, "the United States will within a very short time face financial =
or even political collapse." The folly of what Chalmers terms "military =
Keynesianism" - devotion to militarism, weapons, warfare as fiscal =
stimulus, a policy embraced with equal fervor by both parties in =
Congress - will speed the country to moral, fiscal and political =
bankruptcy. To grasp the horror of military Keynesianism, consider this =
statistic: By 1990, production for the Department of Defense amounted to =
83 percent of the value of all manufacturing plants and equipment in the =
US. Only 17 percent of the US manufacturing base actually made products =
not meant to kill. In this regard, bankruptcy and collapse is =
much-deserved, a comeuppance long overdue. On the bright side, Johnson =
notes that "bankruptcy will not mean the literal end of the United =
States any more than it did for Germany in 1923, China in 1948, or =
Argentina in 2001. It might, in fact, open the way for an unexpected =
restoration of the American system, or for military rule, revolution, or =
simply some new development we cannot yet imagine."   =20
    =20


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    <TD class=3Dez vAlign=3Dtop bgColor=3D#ffffff><STRONG><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://blackhillsportal.com/npps/section.cfm?SID=3D21">Headline=20
      News</A></STRONG></TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD class=3Dsz><BR><STRONG><SPAN class=3Dtz><FONT size=3D2>2008 USA=20
      Outlook</FONT></SPAN></STRONG>=20
      <P><SPAN class=3Dxsz><STRONG><FONT size=3D2>Futurist and trends =
forecaster -=20
      Outlook Not Good!</FONT></STRONG></SPAN>=20
      <P><FONT face=3DArial><FONT size=3D3>After watching the latest =
rounds of GOP=20
      Debates and listening to Presidential candidate John McCain tell =
the=20
      masses he believes the US Economy&nbsp;is doing great and will =
continue=20
      into his Presidency.&nbsp;Our editorial staff decided to republish =
a=20
      recent story by Christorpher Ketcham that is getting so much =
traffic that=20
      it is actually crashing servers where the </FONT><A=20
      href=3D"http://pacificfreepress.com/content/view/2236/81/"><FONT=20
      size=3D3>story is hosted</FONT></A><FONT size=3D3>.<BR><BR>Why did =
we feel=20
      this appropriate?&nbsp; Our staff believes that "Traditional =
Media" are=20
      not giving a fair portrait of our social and economic climate and =
wanted=20
      you to see and hear more from the other side too.&nbsp; We also =
plan to=20
      offer more insight to this lack of media coverage in the very near =

      future.&nbsp; For now here is the future as one man sees=20
      it:</FONT><BR></FONT><BR>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>Trends for Downsizing the US: The =
Bright Side=20
      of the Panic of =9108 &nbsp;<BR>by <STRONG><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.atlanticfreepress.com/component/option,com_comprofiler=
/task,userProfile/Itemid,2/user,172/">Christopher=20
      Ketcham</A> &nbsp;</STRONG><BR></FONT><A=20
      href=3D"http://pacificfreepress.com/images/stories/celente.jpg"=20
      target=3D_blank><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3><IMG title=3D"" =
style=3D"MARGIN: 5px"=20
      height=3D336 alt=3D""=20
      =
src=3D"http://pacificfreepress.com/mambots/content/fboxbot/thumbs/celente=
_229x336_9ffa41210c9f3bae6f9049a5bde1ed45.jpg"=20
      width=3D229 align=3Dleft border=3D0> </FONT></A><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3>Futurist=20
      and trends forecaster Gerald Celente, director of the </FONT><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.trendsresearch.com/"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3>Trends=20
      Research Institute</FONT></A><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3> in =
Rhinebeck, NY,=20
      predicted the 1987 stock market crash, the collapse of the Soviet =
Union in=20
      1989, the Asian economic implosion of =9197, the decline of the =
dollar=20
      beginning in 2005, the meteoric rise in gold prices in an age of =
currency=20
      volatility, and the turn of events that may be the blessing of our =
era,=20
      the subprime mortgage crisis. </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV>
      <BLOCKQUOTE><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>Because of this habit of =
prescience,=20
        Celente has appeared regularly on CNN and Fox and MSNBC, his =
=93Trends=20
        Reports=94 widely quoted in newsprint, on Oprah Winfrey, on Good =
Morning=20
        America.<BR></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><BR><BR><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3>Now in his=20
      <A href=3D"http://www.trendsjournal.com/journal08.html">Report for =
2008</A>,=20
      issued in mid-December, he carried the news every thinking =
American=20
      already knows. =93The United States of America,=94 Celente =
pronounced, =93has=20
      gone from first class to third rate.=94 It=92s a =93nation on the =
skids and=20
      heading down.=94 </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>Celente projects =
economic and=20
      political crisis in the coming year. =93In 2008, Americans will =
wake up to=20
      the worst economic times that anyone alive has ever seen,=94 he =
wrote on=20
      December 17. =93Just as they didn=92t see 9/11 coming and were =
frozen in shock=20
      when terror struck, [Americans] will be frozen in shock when =
terror=20
      strikes again.=94 He predicts =93failing banks, busted brokerages, =
toppled=20
      corporate giants, bankrupt cities, states in default, foreign =
creditors=20
      cashing out of US securities=85the stage is set, the big one is on =
its=20
      way.=94<BR><BR>
      <TABLE style=3D"WIDTH: 531px; HEIGHT: 363px" cellSpacing=3D1 =
cellPadding=3D1=20
      width=3D531 summary=3D"" border=3D1>
        <TBODY>
        <TR>
          <TD bgColor=3D#000000>
            <P align=3Dcenter><EMBED=20
            src=3Dhttp://www.youtube.com/v/IFR0qodhPJ4&amp;rel=3D1 =
width=3D425=20
            height=3D355 type=3Dapplication/x-shockwave-flash=20
            =
wmode=3D"transparent"></EMBED></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR><BR>A=20
      similar <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.gao.gov/media/video/fiscal/windows/amfiscal.wmv">wake-=
up=20
      call</A> (<A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.gao.gov/media/video/fiscal/windows/amfiscal.wmv">Watch=
=20
      Video</A>) was issued last summer in a report by none other than =
the chief=20
      investigator for the US Government Accountability Office, =
comptroller=20
      general David Walker, who warned that US policy on energy, =
education, the=20
      environment, health care,<A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.blackhillsportal.com/npps/story.cfm?id=3D2044">immigra=
tion</A>,=20
      Iraq =96 pretty much the gamut =96 was on an =93unsustainable=94 =
course, bound for=20
      a maelstrom of insolvency that could threaten to sink the ship.=20
      </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>According to the GAO chief, the =
fall of Rome=20
      seemed an apt historical comparison: </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV>
      <UL>
        <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>=93[D]eclining moral values and =
political=20
        civility at home, an over-confident and over-extended military =
in=20
        foreign lands, and fiscal irresponsibility by the central =
government.=20
        Sound familiar? I=92m trying to sound an alarm.=94</FONT>=20
      </LI></UL><BR><BR><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>When I called up =
Celente on Jan.=20
      2 to see how the new year was taking shape on the first day of =
trading, he=20
      fired back in an e-mail: </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV>
      <UL>
        <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>=93An attack in Nigeria =
(Africa=92s biggest oil=20
        producer) by anti-government forces on the port city of Port =
Harcourt=20
        hit the futures markets hard. On the New York Stock Exchange, =
trading=20
        conditions worsened on reports that the Institute for Supply=20
        Management's manufacturing index dropped to 47.7, the lowest =
reading=20
        since April 2003. Growth in European and Singapore manufacturing =
also=20
        slowed in November, showing signs for all those that were =
looking that=20
        the slowdown would be global.=94 </FONT></LI></UL></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>By early afternoon, gold had =
surged $24 an=20
      ounce, crude oil climbed $3, the dollar fell against all major =
currencies,=20
      and the Dow was down over 200 points. The next day, Jan. 3, oil =
hit a=20
      record $100 a barrel. And indeed, as Celente warned, world markets =
were=20
      unraveling by the second week of January, the Nikkei on its worse =
start to=20
      a new year since 1970, the MSCI World Index dropping 6.9 percent, =
a loss=20
      of $2.1 trillion from members' market capitalization, while Swiss =
world=20
      banking giant UBS posted a $13 billion loss, and authorities in =
Britain=20
      reported the first run on a British bank in a hundred =
years.<BR><BR>When=20
      on January 14 Celente sent out his weekly e-mail alert to =
subscribers, the=20
      news was no better. The Dow registered its third consecutive week =
of=20
      losses, one of its worst New Year starts in history, losing in =
just the=20
      first week of 2008 half its gains from 2007. </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV>
      <UL>
        <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>=93Slumping retail sales, dire =
housing data,=20
        rising unemployment rates, gloomy consumer confidence, spiking =
oil=20
        prices, a ballooning trade gap, eroding wages, mounting credit =
card debt=20
        and delinquencies, mortgage defaults, record foreclosures,=94 =
said=20
        Celente. =93The data floods the wires and spreads the fear.=94 =
It=92s telling=20
        that Tiffany's was off 11 percent in sales, as even the very =
rich hide=20
        their cash under beds.</FONT> </LI></UL><BR><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3>So is=20
      the subprime mortgage mess the catalyst for the Big One, what =
Celente=20
      calls the Panic of =9108? Stock guru Jim Cramer, host of CNBC=92s =
Mad Money=20
      and co-founder of TheStreet.com, seems to think so. </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV>
      <UL>
        <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>=93There are a group of =
insurance companies=20
        that insure all these bad mortgages,=94 he told Chris Matthews =
on Jan. 18.=20
        =93And I think they=92re all about to go belly up. And that will =
cause the=20
        Dow Jones to decline 2,000 points. They have got to be shut =
down. This=20
        is going to happen in maybe two, three weeks, Chris. It=92s =
going to be on=20
        the front of every paper. And no one in Washington is even =
willing to=20
        admit it. I am telling you these companies do not have the =
capital to=20
        make good. And, when they do fall =96 I believe it is when =96 =
if the=20
        government doesn=92t have a plan in action, you will not be able =
to open=20
        the stock market when they collapse=85No one is even talking =
about=20
        it.=94</FONT> </LI></UL><BR><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>From =
panic, offers=20
      Gerald Celente, will arise almost overnight an era of social and =
political=20
      upheaval and plain awfulness. Self storage will finally =93live up =
to the=20
      meaning of its name. Down and out, thrown onto the streets, =
homeless=20
      Americans will empty out storage lockers of useless junk=85to =
store=20
      themselves.=94 </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>He predicts wage riots and =
anti-government=20
      street protests and intensified anti-immigration movements looking =
to=20
      scapegoat the =93aliens=94 among us. </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>Toward the 1 percent of Americans =
who=20
      received 50 percent of all income gains in recent years =96 those =
same 1=20
      percenters, roughly 3 million people, who took in 22 percent of =
all income=20
      in 2005 =96 there will be growing rage. </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV>
      <UL>
        <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>=93Kidnappings for ransom will =
become common,=20
        as they were in the Depression and as the poor strike out =
against the=20
        rich,=94 Celente predicts. Lawlessness will be met, as in most =
third rate=20
        nations, with violence from an increasingly sophisticated and =
brutal=20
        police state. A different type of violence from the ground up, =
tax=20
        revolts, will also develop in strength, targeting a tax-ravenous =
federal=20
        government that Celente charges has failed =93to protect food, =
win wars,=20
        clean the environment, upgrade infrastructure, improve living =
standards,=20
        provide health services or advance education.=94</FONT> =
</LI></UL><BR><FONT=20
      face=3DArial size=3D3>Meanwhile, the dollar will bottom out at 10 =
cents to the=20
      euro sometime in the next several years, perhaps by 2010. =
Newspapers=20
      report that even Third World vendors are beginning to refuse =
payment in=20
      greenbacks, while foreign governments and investors, mostly the =
Chinese,=20
      deploy the muscle of their currencies to buy US property and =
businesses=20
      (proxies of the Chinese government late last year snagged a 5 =
percent=20
      stake in Citibank, a 10 percent stake in Morgan =
Stanley).<BR><BR>Note that=20
      this is no <EM>fringer</EM> veering into conspiracist phantasm: =
Celente=20
      consults for hundreds of large and small corporations, addresses=20
      government bodies worldwide. Norway flew him to Europe in 2006 to =
address=20
      a conference on innovation, while the International Council of =
Shopping=20
      Centers hosted him as the key-note speaker at its 2007 convention =
=96 the=20
      mall builders hoped to glean from Celente =93what people want from =
malls.=94=20
      </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>It=92s notable, in the wake of =
the prognoses of=20
      his 2008 reports, that he is no longer invited onto the TV and =
cable=20
      networks =96 =93the first year in decades,=94 he says, =93that =
they did not have=20
      me on and that USA Today did not cover the Trends Report.=94 When =
Celente=20
      sent out an e-mail alert to his mailing list in mid-January, Jack =
Marks,=20
      the publisher and CEO of The Wall Street Reporter, one of the =
oldest=20
      investment organs in New York, wrote him back to say =93You are a =
#ucking=20
      retard mother#ucker=94 and =93Remove me from this list, you =
#ucking moron.=94=20
      </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>The local publishing group near =
Celente=92s=20
      home in Rhinebeck is perhaps more typical in its spinelessness: =
The=20
      Taconic Press, which publishes six newspapers in the Hudson Valley =
and=20
      upstate New York, told Celente in December via e-mail that there =
was =93a=20
      general uproar about the inclusion of your Trends forecast [in =
2007]=85=20
      reader and advertiser reaction was strong, and they made their =
feelings=20
      known to our publisher.=94 Celente=92s long relationship with =
Taconic Press is=20
      no more. Par for the course in the nation of blinkered=20
      denial.<BR><BR>There is apparently an upside to the rottenness to =
come,=20
      according to Celente =96 if Americans dare to reinvent for the =
21st century=20
      the free thinking and civic courage of their past. This good cheer =
as Rome=20
      burns is buried somewhat in Celente=92s report for 2008, but what =
it=20
      suggests is that, catalyzed by crisis, a fair number of Americans =
=96 a=20
      minority, likely, but still to watch =96 will begin this year a=20
      transformation of consciousness. </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV align=3Djustify>
      <BLOCKQUOTE>
        <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>Celente predicts that the =
smaller=20
        communities, the smaller groups, the smaller states, the more=20
        self-sustaining communities, will =93weather the crisis in =
style=94 as big=20
        cities and hypertrophic suburbias descend into misery and =
conflict.=20
        </FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>=93Like Katrina=92s victims that =
knew the=20
      hurricane was coming but didn=92t flee =96 and looked to Uncle Sam =
to save the=20
      day =96 those that don=92t take action before panic strikes or =
wait for=20
      Washington to lend a hand, will suffer the most from the calamity =
that=20
      follows,=94 he writes. </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV align=3Djustify>
      <BLOCKQUOTE>
        <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>Economically, the new =
consciousness will=20
        recapture Yankee frugality and reject the lunatic behaviors that =
have=20
        been unsustainable since the Second World War =96 big houses, =
big cars,=20
        big spending. Those who market and embrace =93products and =
services that=20
        focus on compact, smart, functional, efficient, neat, clean, =
reusable,=20
        'less is more' and 'small is beautiful',=94 Celente writes, =
=93will=20
        handsomely profit.=94 </FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>There will be a downsizing of =
expectations=20
      and perceived needs. There will be a downsizing of giantist =
institutions=20
      to fit to human scale =96 the center cannot hold, particularly as =
state=92s=20
      righters and tax rebels and what Celente calls =93the newly =
flourishing=20
      state secessionist movements=94 begin to repudiate a $9 =
trillion-in-debt=20
      federal government that too often practices the most offensive =
kind of=20
      taxation without representation. Altogether, there will be a =
downsizing of=20
      America.<BR><BR></FONT>
      <UL>
        <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D3>=93This could be the end of =
something really=20
        ignorant and stupid and dark,=94 Celente told me recently in a =
phone=20
        interview. =93The end of a dark age! The end of the age of what =
I call=20
        Bottom-Line Fascism, the ruthless and dictatorial profit-only =
way of=20
        thinking that produces crap over quality in all the major =
institutions,=20
        dopiness and blob-thinking, the manipulations of an idiotic =
media and=20
        political establishment, the Cartoon News Networks, the Greta =
Van=20
        Susterens and the Hillary Clintons uttering the same pablum ad =
nauseum=20
        over and over. All the institutions are coming apart =96 =
government,=20
        corporations, media, education, health care. They present =
nothing less=20
        than a vacuum! Something has to fill it! The systems that are in =
place?=20
        Things can only get worse if they stay in place. But I=92m an =
optimist.=20
        I=92m gunning for something better to replace what we got.=94 He =
pauses. =93A=20
        renaissance! I=92m gunning for a renaissance: an era where =
quality beats=20
        out the crap of quantity.=94</FONT> </LI></UL></DIV>
      <DIV>
      <DIV align=3Djustify>
      <BLOCKQUOTE><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>POST-SCRIPT: Alarm bells =
are also=20
        ringing for former CIA consultant Chalmers Johnson, author of =
the=20
        Blowback Trilogy, including most recently the final installment =
Nemesis:=20
        The Last Days of the American Republic. Like Celente, Johnson =
sees the=20
        subprime mess as only the most visible part of a far-reaching =
debt=20
        crisis with lethal implications. =93Confronted by the limits of =
its own=20
        vast but nonetheless finite financial resources and lacking the=20
        political check on spending provided by a functional =
democracy,=94 Johnson=20
        wrote in Harper=92s last January, =93the United States will =
within a very=20
        short time face financial or even political collapse.=94 The =
folly of what=20
        Chalmers terms =93military Keynesianism=94 =96 devotion to =
militarism,=20
        weapons, warfare as fiscal stimulus, a policy embraced with =
equal fervor=20
        by both parties in Congress =96 will speed the country to moral, =
fiscal=20
        and political bankruptcy. To grasp the horror of military =
Keynesianism,=20
        consider this statistic: By 1990, production for the Department =
of=20
        Defense amounted to 83 percent of the value of all manufacturing =
plants=20
        and equipment in the US. Only 17 percent of the US manufacturing =
base=20
        actually made products not meant to kill. In this regard, =
bankruptcy and=20
        collapse is much-deserved, a comeuppance long overdue. On the =
bright=20
        side, Johnson notes that =93bankruptcy will not mean the literal =
end of=20
        the United States any more than it did for Germany in 1923, =
China in=20
        1948, or Argentina in 2001. It might, in fact, open the way for =
an=20
        unexpected restoration of the American system, or for military =
rule,=20
        revolution, or simply some new development we cannot yet=20
        imagine.=94</FONT><FONT=20
      =
size=3D1>&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT>&nbsp;&nbsp;<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV></DIV></TD=
></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

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