[Hpn] GRASSROOT CAMPAIGNS PUT WILLIE'S CANDIDATES AND ISSUES IN REAL TROUBLE TROUBLE

chance martin streetsheet@sf-homeless-coalition.org
Tue, 07 Nov 2000 11:37:38 -0700


SF MAMOUTH TURNOUT AND STRONG GRASSROOT CAMPAIGNS PUT
WILLIE'S 
CANDIDATES AND ISSUES IN REAL TROUBLE. THE POLITICAL
MACHINE IN 
TURMOIL
By Frontlines Staff

Willie's Presidential Candidate losing in Districts 5
and 9, 5 of his 
candidates for Supervisor, 2 of his favorites for
School Board and 2 
of his candidates for College Board appear to be
trailing badly and 
Proposition K is going down the drain.

According to the SF Institute for Political Science,
this is the 
situation:

* Over 72% of all registered voters are expected to
cast votes by 
tomorrow, Tuesday, November 7 at 8 PM. This
larger-than-ever turnout
will bring to the voting booths mostly opponents of
the local 
political machine.

* The traditional bastions of Willie's machine are
deserting it. Over 
40% of all African Americans, 58% of Latinos, and 60%
of union 
members are planning to vote AGAINST machine
candidates and issues.
Among young voters, Willie's candidates and issues are
faring even 
worse: 68% are planning to vote for alternative
candidates and 
against Willie's candidates. Even among conservative
voters - who 
were assiduously courted by Willie in the mayoral
election - the 
support is split 50-50.

* Ralph Nader will come out FIRST and defeat Al Gore
in the Mission 
District and the Haight, the core of Districts 5 and
9. Bush will be 
a distant third. Nader will be a close second to Al
Gore in several 
other neighborhoods and Bush will carry not a single
neighborhood in 
the City (no surprises here). Total expected Citywide
vote for Gore 
48%, Nader 26%, Bush 14%, other candidates 8% and only
4% were still 
undecided (11/4/2000). This will be the LOWEST vote
for a Democratic 
Presidential candidate in the City since the 70s.

* Willie's candidates for Supervisors Alicia Becerril
(District 3), 
Juanita Owens (District 5); Dittenhaffer (District 6)
and Amos Brown 
(District 11) won't even make it to the runoff,
according to the 
SFIPS.

District 3: candidates Peskin, Levitan, Denunzio, and
Wong are 
fighting to make it to the runoff.

District 5: Juanita Owens is trailing Agar Jaicks (the
second choice 
of Mayor Brown) and Matt Gonzalez who would face off
in the runoff.

District 6: the runoff is certain to be between
Magilavy and Daly 
who are now the clear front-runners with 26% of the
vote each.

District 11: Candidates Petroni, Sandoval, Lim and
Silverberg are 
fighting for a position on the runoff with Amos Brown
fighting for a 
third or even a fourth place.

In another three Districts (1, 4 and 8) Willie's
candidates (Yaki, 
Hsieh and Leno) are facing a certain runoff at which
most opponents 
and voters will back their challengers.

 In other developments, Ammiano, who is
running against Progressive=

Left Lucrecia and two other Latina Democrats (one of
them, Tullier, 
supported by Willie's people) is polling less than 50%
of the vote 
and will face a runoff, most likely with Lucrecia, in
December. 
Apparently, progressive voters are sending him the
message that he 
shifted too much to the right during his mayoral bid.
Since rightist 
candidates stand no chance to get even a decent
percentage of the 
vote in District 9, voters are chosing between two
options to the 
left of Willie Brown. No lesser evil here, but a
better leftist 
contest.
 Mary T. Hernández, the favorite incumbent of
the machine and the
soft money people is going down the tubes with less
than 25% of the 
vote Citywide (in citywide elections you cannot win
with less than 
35% of the vote). Two candidates supported by BOTH
Willie Brown AND 
Ammiano are likely to be elected ( Wynns and Vela)
with Progressive 
Left candidate Maria Dolores Rinaldi obtaining a great
vote. Teacher 
Mark Sanchez and a couple other candidates are making
waves as well 
while opportunist Eric Mar is trailing badly.
 In the College Board race – also a Citywide
election – both 
incumbents of the machine, Nathalie Berg and Rodel
Rodis are facing a 
tough survival struggle polling less than 25% of the
vote and with 
challengers Finn, Mouton, Erin Brown, Ghadi closing
rapidly the gap. 
Other would be candidates of the machine (Louie, Mark
and Ramos 
losing big) and Scott Brown trailing them. .
 Energized by a 2,000-strong rally yesterday
in front of City Hall,=

Proposition L for slow growth is winning with 60% of
the potential 
vote while Willie's competing Prop K is 10 points in
the red with 45% 
in favor and 55% against it.

If the turnout is big tomorrow, as expected, these
results are likely 
to hold and this will represent the biggest machine's
loss ever. It 
is up to you now. 

=====

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